Wednesday, 6 October 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (14, 36, 37) with the draw of 14 September 2020 — its closest relative in 3,870 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (5 October 2021): 36 carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 127 — the 92th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 95. Side-by-side numbers: 36–37. 46% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

14 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.