Sunday, 18 July 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 29, 32, 33) with the draw of 11 December 2014 — its closest relative in 3,790 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 75% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 July 2021): 29 carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 134 — the 96th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 95. Side-by-side numbers: 32–33. 46% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

4 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.4× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.