Tuesday, 4 May 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (3, 11, 21, 28) with the draw of 22 May 2017 — its closest relative in 3,715 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 75% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (3 May 2021): 11 carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 85 — the 33th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 95. Side-by-side numbers: 21–22. 46% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

22 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.