Monday, 3 August 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (3, 13, 30, 35) with the draw of 18 July 2019 — its closest relative in 3,441 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 72% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (2 August 2020): 36 carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 117 — the 82th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 95. Side-by-side numbers: 35–36. 46% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

13 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.