Tuesday, 20 August 2019

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (3, 17, 21, 31) with the draw of 20 November 2015 — its closest relative in 3,092 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 68% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 August 2019): nothing carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 109 — the 72th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 95. No two numbers side by side. 46% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

37 had not appeared for 63 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.