Sunday, 12 August 2018

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (11, 12, 22, 26) with the draw of 14 February 2013 — its closest relative in 2,719 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 63% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 August 2018): 11, 12 carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 92 — the 44th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 95. Side-by-side numbers: 11–12, 21–22. 46% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

26 had not appeared for 51 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.