Saturday, 10 October 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (10, 11, 31) with the draw of 24 September 2015 — its closest relative in 1,720 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (9 October 2015): 10, 27 carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 96 — the 51th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 95. Side-by-side numbers: 10–11. 46% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

11 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.