Wednesday, 14 May 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (15, 16, 25) with the draw of 13 May 2014 — its closest relative in 1,279 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 May 2014): 15, 16, 25 carried over. Chance says 54% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 82 — the 28th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 95. Side-by-side numbers: 15–16. 46% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

23 had not appeared for 36 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.