Monday, 22 February 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (27, 28, 41, 44) with the draw of 12 August 2010 — its closest relative in 640 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 47% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 February 2016): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 213 — the 97th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 27–28, 40–41. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

40 had not appeared for 27 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.4× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 66% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.