Monday, 13 February 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (13, 44, 48) with the draw of 2 January 2012 — its closest relative in 220 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 98% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (9 February 2012): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 202 — the 94th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 47–48. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

47 had not appeared for 23 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.3× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 74% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.