Thursday, 18 August 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (4, 5, 10, 13) with the draw of 21 February 2011 — its closest relative in 169 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 15% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (15 August 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 81 — the 2th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 4–5. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

10 had not appeared for 31 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 36% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.