Thursday, 7 July 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (2, 17, 24) with the draw of 10 February 2011 — its closest relative in 157 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 95% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 July 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 101 — the 7th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 24–25. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

24 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 17% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.