Wednesday, 20 January 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (15, 22, 27) with the draw of 26 August 2015 — its closest relative in 490 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 98% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 January 2016): 15, 21 carried over. Chance says 48% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 119 — the 62th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 110. Side-by-side numbers: 21–22. 40% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

27 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.