Wednesday, 22 July 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (34, 39, 40) with the draw of 2 July 2015 — its closest relative in 309 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 90% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (21 July 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 48% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 154 — the 95th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 110. Side-by-side numbers: 39–40. 40% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

39 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.4× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 9% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.