Saturday, 11 August 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (9, 12, 21) with the draw of 26 February 2012 — its closest relative in 849 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 August 2012): nothing carried over. Chance says 51% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 70 — the 9th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 103. No two numbers side by side. 43% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.