Wednesday, 11 May 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (22, 24, 28, 37) with the draw of 19 August 2010 — its closest relative in 398 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 10% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 May 2011): 24, 28 carried over. Chance says 51% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 131 — the 87th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 103. No two numbers side by side. 43% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

20 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.