Saturday, 30 April 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (4, 8, 11) with the draw of 27 December 2010 — its closest relative in 387 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 97% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (29 April 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 51% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 70 — the 9th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 103. Side-by-side numbers: 7–8. 43% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

4 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.