Wednesday, 2 March 2011

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (5, 8, 31, 38) with the draw of 18 February 2011 — its closest relative in 328 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 8.4% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (1 March 2011): 8 carried over. Chance says 51% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 84 — the 22th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 103. No two numbers side by side. 43% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

2 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.