Saturday, 6 November 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (7, 9, 14, 31) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 31 October 2012 — its closest relative in 1,208 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 25% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (3 November 2021): 14 carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 4 repeated (17% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 85 — the 21th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. No two numbers side by side. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

7 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.