Saturday, 15 May 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (4, 16, 21) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 23 December 2020 — its closest relative in 1,158 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (12 May 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (17% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 108 — the 54th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. No two numbers side by side. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.