Wednesday, 30 April 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (7, 10, 11) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 1 January 2014 — its closest relative in 423 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 97% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (26 April 2014): 10 carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (17% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 60 — the 3th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 7–8, 10–11. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

7 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 3.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.