Saturday, 22 February 2014

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (3, 20, 38, 39) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 8 May 2013 — its closest relative in 404 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 9.3% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 February 2014): nothing carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (17% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 136 — the 88th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 38–39. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

38 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.