Thursday, 19 March 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (2, 4, 39) with the draw of 24 November 2019 — its closest relative in 501 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 98% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 March 2020): 4 carried over. Chance says 48% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 82 — the 14th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 110. No two numbers side by side. 40% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

2 had not appeared for 32 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.