Wednesday, 12 September 2018

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (17, 28, 29, 32) with the draw of 1 September 2018 — its closest relative in 844 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 18% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 September 2018): nothing carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 131 — the 84th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 28–29. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

29 had not appeared for 5 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.