Friday, 20 July 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (2, 15, 38, 39) with the draw of 28 August 2010 — its closest relative in 824 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 22% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 July 2012): 15 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 110 — the 65th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 15–16, 38–39. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

16 had not appeared for 23 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.