Tuesday, 10 January 2012

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (2, 3, 8, 39) with the draw of 13 August 2010 — its closest relative in 638 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 17% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (9 January 2012): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 71 — the 11th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 2–3. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

19 had not appeared for 4 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.