Monday, 11 April 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (2, 8, 11, 12) with the draw of 13 May 2014 — its closest relative in 4,380 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 97% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 April 2022): 16 carried over. Chance says 61% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 49 — the 5th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 80. Side-by-side numbers: 11–12. 52% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

8 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 6 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.