Monday, 8 November 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (6, 8, 23, 24) with the draw of 18 June 2021 — its closest relative in 1,814 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 22% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (5 November 2021): 6, 25 carried over. Chance says 45% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 86 — the 12th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. Side-by-side numbers: 23–24, 24–25. 37% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

23 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.