Wednesday, 13 October 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (14, 19, 20, 41) with the draw of 14 November 2011 — its closest relative in 1,803 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 22% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 October 2021): 19 carried over. Chance says 45% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 95 — the 20th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. Side-by-side numbers: 19–20. 37% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

14 had not appeared for 36 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.