Monday, 17 August 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (5, 6, 20, 34) with the draw of 20 August 2014 — its closest relative in 1,622 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 20% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (14 August 2020): nothing carried over. Chance says 45% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 92 — the 17th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. Side-by-side numbers: 5–6. 37% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

20 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.