Friday, 5 October 2018

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (21, 40, 44) with the draw of 12 September 2018 — its closest relative in 1,330 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (3 October 2018): nothing carried over. Chance says 45% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 185 — the 99th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. Side-by-side numbers: 44–45. 37% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

40 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.4× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 14% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.