Wednesday, 18 November 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (25, 26, 40) with the draw of 13 March 2015 — its closest relative in 879 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 November 2015): 26 carried over. Chance says 45% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 144 — the 79th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 120. Side-by-side numbers: 25–26. 37% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

35 had not appeared for 37 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 7% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.