Wednesday, 8 March 2017

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (2, 3, 15, 17) with the draw of 19 March 2011 — its closest relative in 719 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 57% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 March 2017): nothing carried over. Chance says 58% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 84 — the 3th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 144. Side-by-side numbers: 2–3, 3–4. 51% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

15 had not appeared for 20 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 23% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.