Wednesday, 11 February 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (9, 10, 12, 19) with the draw of 1 September 2010 — its closest relative in 503 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 44% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (7 February 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 58% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 97 — the 7th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 144. Side-by-side numbers: 9–10. 51% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

40 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 16% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.