Wednesday, 22 December 2010

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (10, 31, 43) with the draw of 22 September 2010 — its closest relative in 74 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 79% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 December 2010): 10, 15 carried over. Chance says 58% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 171 — the 80th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 144. No two numbers side by side. 51% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

31 had not appeared for 26 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 48% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.