Saturday, 1 August 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (3, 4, 5, 17) with the draw of 12 March 2011 — its closest relative in 554 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 13% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (29 July 2015): 12 carried over. Chance says 50% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 41 — the 0th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 105. Side-by-side numbers: 3–4, 4–5. 42% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

3 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.