Wednesday, 8 September 2021

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 9, 22, 23) with the draw of 5 December 2016 — its closest relative in 1,755 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 41% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (7 September 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 77 — the 17th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 22–23. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

4 had not appeared for 26 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.1× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.