Wednesday, 18 November 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (6, 20, 21, 22) with the draw of 13 February 2020 — its closest relative in 1,461 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 35% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 November 2020): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 86 — the 28th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 20–21, 21–22. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

17 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.