Saturday, 22 August 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (23, 28, 33, 34) with the draw of 17 August 2020 — its closest relative in 1,373 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 33% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (21 August 2020): 30 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 148 — the 98th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 33–34. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

28 had not appeared for 5 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.