Wednesday, 11 February 2015

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (30, 42, 49) with the draw of 16 July 2014 — its closest relative in 533 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (7 February 2015): nothing carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 172 — the 74th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 150. Side-by-side numbers: 22–23. 50% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

22 had not appeared for 25 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 43% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.