Sunday, 15 May 2016

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (18, 19, 28, 32) with the draw of 26 April 2014 — its closest relative in 1,998 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 61% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (14 May 2016): 24 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 121 — the 92th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 90. Side-by-side numbers: 18–19. 48% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

18 had not appeared for 32 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.