Saturday, 2 February 2013

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (13, 14, 21) with the draw of 11 December 2012 — its closest relative in 807 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (1 February 2013): 14 carried over. Chance says 56% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 105 — the 75th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 90. Side-by-side numbers: 13–14. 48% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 22 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.