Tuesday, 9 January 2024

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (5, 30, 40) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 26 November 2023 — its closest relative in 1,579 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (8 January 2024): nothing carried over. Chance says 44% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (6% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 143 — the 74th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 29–30, 39–40. 37% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

5 had not appeared for 25 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 7% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.