Monday, 17 April 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (6, 12, 38) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 20 March 2023 — its closest relative in 1,312 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (16 April 2023): 6 carried over. Chance says 44% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (6% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 105 — the 28th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 37% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

12 had not appeared for 5 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.