Monday, 21 September 2020

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (7, 28, 39) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 29 April 2019 — its closest relative in 589 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 96% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 September 2020): 28, 41 carried over. Chance says 44% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (6% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 162 — the 90th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 37% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

47 had not appeared for 22 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 9% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.