Saturday, 7 July 2018

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (12, 30, 31, 37) with the draw of 24 March 2018 — its closest relative in 859 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 86% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 July 2018): nothing carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 166 — the 95th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 29–30, 30–31. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

37 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 13% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.