Saturday, 5 August 2017

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (18, 21, 23, 31) with the draw of 31 May 2014 — its closest relative in 763 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 82% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (2 August 2017): nothing carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 154 — the 87th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

27 had not appeared for 40 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 15% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.