Wednesday, 8 February 2023

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 4 numbers (8, 16, 30) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 1 July 2019 — its closest relative in 2,171 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (7 February 2023): 8 carried over. Chance says 40% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 0 repeated (4% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 65 — the 35th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 72. No two numbers side by side. 31% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

30 had not appeared for 22 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.