Thursday, 7 July 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 4 numbers (20, 21, 33) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 19 September 2021 — its closest relative in 1,955 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (6 July 2022): nothing carried over. Chance says 40% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 109 — the 97th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 72. Side-by-side numbers: 20–21. 31% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.