Saturday, 1 January 2022

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 4 numbers (3, 11, 15) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 3 May 2021 — its closest relative in 1,769 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 99% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (31 December 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 40% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (4% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 64 — the 34th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 72. No two numbers side by side. 31% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

11 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 0% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.